Gold prices in Pakistan have skyrocketed to Rs. 563,862 per tola — rising Rs. 13,300 in a single session — as the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, triggering the most dramatic gold price surge in recent memory.
Karat Per Tola (PKR) Per 10g (PKR) Per Gram (PKR) Rs. 467,410 Rs. 400,740 Rs. 40,074 Rs. 428,459 Rs. 367,340 Rs. 36,734 Rs. 408,984 Rs. 350,640 Rs. 35,064 Rs. 350,558 Rs. 300,550 Rs. 30,055
What Happened? The US-Israel-Iran War Explained
The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military targets. The strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, setting off a chain reaction that sent shockwaves through global financial markets.
Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the Gulf region, targeting Israel, Gulf states, and military installations. The strikes triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes.
President Donald Trump stated the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining four objectives he hopes to accomplish toward reducing what he described as the threat posed by Tehran.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said military operations against Iran would not lead to an “endless war,” with the aim being to destroy Tehran’s missiles, Navy and other security infrastructure. President Trump later told reporters that his administration had projected the conflict to last four to five weeks, but has the capability to go far longer.
Gold Price Reaction — Pakistan and Global Markets
The market reaction was immediate and historic.
In Pakistan: On Saturday, gold prices had already seen a sharp jump, with the per tola rate climbing Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 550,562. Following the intensification of strikes, gold surged a further Rs. 13,300. As of 3 March 2026, gold rates in Pakistan stand at Rs. 563,862 per tola, with the 10-gram price at Rs. 483,420. In international markets, gold has reached $5,411 per ounce after recording a rise of $133.
In Global Markets: Spot gold gained 2% to $5,384 an ounce, hitting a session high of $5,418. US gold futures rose 2.9% to $5,397 an ounce.
Brent crude spiked as much as 13% to $82 per barrel at the open — a 14-month high — as investors flooded into safe-haven assets in one of the most dramatic Monday market openings in years.
Pakistan Stock Market: The PSX fell into freefall, with Middle East war fears wiping out 16,000 points in a historic crash — a stark reminder of why gold, not stocks, is where Pakistanis park their money during global crises.
Why Does a War in the Middle East Push Gold Higher in Pakistan?
Many Pakistanis wonder: why does a conflict thousands of kilometres away make gold more expensive here? There are three direct mechanisms:
1. Global Safe-Haven Rush When war breaks out, investors worldwide sell stocks, currencies and bonds and buy gold. The escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran sparked a bid for haven assets, with investors scooping up gold and the US dollar as places to park cash during the turmoil. This global buying drives up the USD price of gold — which directly raises Pakistan’s gold rate.
2. Oil Price Shock → Rupee Pressure Pakistan imports almost all of its oil. Global oil prices traded at their highest level in over eight months following the strikes. Higher oil means Pakistan spends more dollars on imports, pressuring the rupee downward. A weaker rupee automatically means higher gold prices in PKR even if the international USD price stays flat.
3. Strait of Hormuz Risk The Strait of Hormuz closure is a particularly direct threat for Pakistan. Pakistan’s oil supply routes pass through the Gulf region. Any sustained disruption to shipping could amplify both oil costs and currency pressure — both of which feed directly into Pakistan’s domestic gold price.
What Analysts Are Saying
The market consensus is that gold’s upward trend has room to run as long as the conflict continues.
Analysts are now forecasting potential targets of $5,500–$6,000 per ounce if hostilities intensify further.
J.P. Morgan analysts said in a new research note that they remain bullish on gold and expect it to hit $6,300 by the end of 2026, noting that “conflict-driven surges in gold come and go, though geopolitical risks broadly are likely to stay on the boil.”
Oxford Economics analysts noted that oil, gold, and aerospace & defense stocks will likely spike, though they advise selling any extreme moves — adding that the conflict is unlikely to last beyond two months.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said: “It is not only the risk of escalation that markets must now discount, but also the considerably wider range of potential outcomes — this wider range makes accurately pricing risk incredibly difficult, leading to a ‘de-risk now, ask questions later’ approach for most.”
What Does This Mean for Gold Investors in Pakistan?
| Scenario | Likely Gold Impact | PKR Rate Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict resolved in 4–5 weeks | Short-term pullback, then stable | Rs. 520,000–540,000/tola |
| Conflict extends 2–3 months | Sustained high prices | Rs. 560,000–600,000/tola |
| Hormuz blockade continues | Sharp further surge | Rs. 600,000–650,000+/tola |
| Broader regional war | Historic spike | Rs. 650,000+/tola |
For existing gold holders: This is not the time to sell in panic or in greed. Gold is performing exactly the role it is meant to — protecting your wealth when everything else is falling. The PSX crash is your reminder of why you hold gold.
For those looking to buy: Buying during a war-driven spike carries risk. Analysts suggest that any extreme price moves are likely to fade once the conflict concludes. If you need to buy for an upcoming wedding or obligation, do so now rather than risk prices going higher. If you are investing purely for returns, consider waiting for a post-conflict dip.
For Zakat calculations: With gold now at Rs. 563,862 per tola, this significantly changes your Nisab threshold. Use our Zakat Calculator to recalculate your Zakat obligation with today’s live rates.
Track Live Rates During the Conflict
Gold prices are updating rapidly during this crisis. Bookmark GoldPricePK.org and check our live rates twice daily — we update every morning and afternoon based on the official APSGJA rate.
Karat Per Tola (PKR) Per 10g (PKR) Per Gram (PKR) Rs. 467,410 Rs. 400,740 Rs. 40,074 Rs. 428,459 Rs. 367,340 Rs. 36,734 Rs. 408,984 Rs. 350,640 Rs. 35,064 Rs. 350,558 Rs. 300,550 Rs. 30,055
Use our Gold Calculator to instantly calculate the value of your gold holdings at today’s war-time prices.
FAQs — US-Iran War & Gold Prices Pakistan
Will gold prices come back down after the war ends? History suggests yes — war-driven spikes typically partially correct once a conflict concludes or de-escalates. However, gold was already in a strong bull market before this conflict began, so any correction may be modest. The base price is unlikely to return to pre-war levels.
Should I sell my gold now while prices are high? Only if you have a specific need for the cash. If you are holding gold as savings or an inflation hedge, selling during a crisis is exactly the wrong time — you would be converting a safe asset into rupees just as the rupee faces additional pressure.
How high can gold go in Pakistan if the war continues? If international gold reaches the analyst target of $6,300 per ounce and the rupee faces further pressure from oil costs, Pakistan’s gold rate could approach Rs. 700,000 per tola in a worst-case extended conflict scenario. Our live rate tracker will keep you informed as the situation develops.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Gold prices are highly volatile during geopolitical events. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
